Welcome Note:

Condensate production is set to grow. Looking forward, massive investment in Middle East gas developments will fundamentally impact the condensate market. Asia Pacific, with slower production growth, is increasingly a net importer of condensate, remaining dependant on the Middle East for condensate supply. The naphtha geography has also changed over the years. Asia is a significant naphtha consumer while the Middle East produces large volumes of naphtha. The demand for naphtha in the Asian region is expected to outpace output over the next few years. As a result, naphtha will become increasingly deficit in the region and imports are expected to rise.

The Asian naphtha market is undergoing a fundamental and structural change which is unprecedented in the recent decades. These changes are so dramatic that they provide both opportunities and pitfalls for both buyers and sellers of naphtha. The 4 pillars supporting naphtha prices are in danger of collapse and evidence shows that the naphtha price as a percentage of crude is the lowest in recent recorded history.

These pillars affecting naphtha prices are:

1. A slow economic growth translates immediately to lower petrochemical demand and lower naphtha demand. In these circumstances, the impact on other petroleum products comes with a lag of 1 or 2 years but on naphtha it is immediate. Until economic growth recovers, naphtha prices will be under pressure.
2. Huge amounts of condensate from Iran and Qatar are translating into more naphtha either via condensate splitters or as condensates blended into the crude streams for refining. These result in larger naphtha yields while demand remains weak.
3. The emergence of India as a naphtha exporter is complicating the picture. India has used large amounts of naphtha for fertilizers and the power sector. This naphtha is now being substituted by natural gas, thus releasing the naphtha for the export market. In 2009, India’s LNG imports from Qatar will increase by 50%, from 5 to 7.5 million tons while Reliance gas from KG Basin enters the market. Gas prices in India are well below the international market and they are a ready substitute for naphtha in the power and fertilizer sectors, thus providing more incentive for exports of naphtha.
4. Historically weak LPG prices resulting from new gas processing plants in the Middle East are providing incentive for petrochemical operators to substitute LPG for naphtha. As a result, less naphtha is demanded for the petrochemical sector.

All in all, the above factors portray a dismal picture for the naphtha market in the near term, though there are prospects for recovery down the road. 

What are the circumstances for the recovery and what is the time frame? These are issues to be discussed at the Condensate & Naphtha Forum.

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Speakers Confirmed To-Date Include:

• Dr Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman, FACTS Global Energy, USA

• Mr Colin Shelley, Consulting Manager, Poten & Partners, UK

• Khun Surong Bulakul, Executive Vice President, International Trading, PTT Public Company Limited, Thailand (to be confirmed)

• Mr John Sunarmo, President, Pertamina Energy Services, Singapore

• Mr Saad Al Kuwari, VP Operations, Tasweeq, Qatar (to be confirmed)

• Mr Stan Park, Deputy Managing Director, Petrochemical Corporation of Singapore, Singapore

• Dr Zohair Khalaf Ismail, Senior Project Development Engineer, Refining & Manufacturing Ventures Department, Qatar Petroleum, Qatar

• Mr David Hunter, Executive Director, Darwin Clean Fuels, Australia

• Mr Geoff Houlton, Senior Principal, Purvin & Gertz Inc, Singapore

• Mr A J Troner, Managing Director, Asia Pacific Energy Consulting Inc, USA

• Mr Nurdin Prayitno, Marketing Manager of Crude Oil, Pertamina Energy Services, Singapore

• Mr Jason Feer, Senior Vice President & General Manager (Asia Pacific), Argus Media, Singapore

• Mr Dave Ernsberger, Editorial Director, Asia, Platts, Singapore

• Mr Kevin McConnachie, Principal Consultant and Head of Refining Team, FACTS Global Energy, Singapore

• Dr Praveen Kumar, FACTS Global Energy, Singapore

• Mr Peter Manning, Poten & Partners, UK

The above is only a partial list of speakers. The final program will feature additional speakers and sessions.

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Key Issues To Be Addressed:

• Global Condensate Review

• Review of Existing and New Condensate Supply from the
  Middle East, Asia Pacific, West & North Africa and Central Asia

• Condensate Splitting Projects in Middle East, Algeria, Darwin, Indonesia & China

• Relative Pricing between Condensate Grades for Direct Cracking

• Flexibility in Pricing – Naphtha Yield & Quality/Gasoline as a Value Driver/ Middle Distillate & Petrochemical Pricing

• Review of Global Naphtha Markets & Shifts in Naphtha Supply/Demand Patterns

• Trends & Forecasts for Petrochemical and Demand for Feedstock/The Nexus between LPG & Naphtha

• The Role of Gas, Condensate & Naphtha in Steam Cracking

• Global Trade Patterns & Its Impact on Condensate Shipping

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Presidents, VP's & Directors Analysts, General Managers, Commercial Managers, Business Development Executives, Governments & Ministers, Traders / Brokers, Sales / Marketing Managers
Technical Advisors involved in:
♣ Exploration & Production ♣  Purchasing ♣ Facilities Planning ♣ Project Development ♣ Corporate Planning ♣ Natural Gas ♣ Refining ♣ Petrochemicals ♣ Naphtha & Condensate Trade ♣ Power ♣ Chemicals & Feedstocks ♣ Pricing of Crude & Products ♣ Supply & Demand ♣ Production & Utilization ♣ Gas, LNG & NGL's ♣ Analysis & Market Research ♣ Shipping ♣ Petrochemicals ♣ Risk Management ♣ Investments & Financing ♣ Supply & Service

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