Outsmarting the Oil Markets

Learn how to efficiently source, process, correlate and apply Mission-Critical Information to make intelligent strategic decisions in today

Location: Singapore

Venue: Hotel Jen Tanglin, Singapore (Check The Map)

Starts: 01 Feb 2020

Ends: 01 Dec 2019

Type: Course

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ANNOUNCEMENT:

The Outsmarting the Oil Markets Course will be postponed to February 2020 with the exact dates yet to be confirmed. For queries and more information, please contact us at info@cconnection.org.

Turning Information Overload into Actionable Intelligence

Modern oil markets are increasingly complex and volatile.  Streaming digits and firehoses of data across multiple platforms in real-time translated by algorithms, charts and advanced software programs – all these test the capacities of individuals and organizations to execute successful trades and formulate sound business strategies.

Information is power, yet it can also be almost toxic in massive, undigestible quantities.  It loses its value if it is late, inaccurate or irrelevant and can even cause financial losses.

Mission-Critical Information comprises the unique, non-public, proprietary knowledge and analysis that organizations can garner to materially improve performance and profitability. Accessing and sharing such information costs time and money.

Through interactive exercise, attendees will be provided with various tools and methodologies for analysing key price trends and drivers, separating the signal from the noise.  The course objective is to cultivate agile, responsive and pragmatic mindsets in coping with dynamic oil prices and markets.  These hard-learned, experience-based lessons are fully adaptable and meant to stick.

Course Directors

Mr. John T. Driscoll

Chief Strategist, JTD Energy Services Pte Ltd

Outsmarting the Oil Markets Course Director
Bunker Fuel & Ballast Water Compliance 2019 Conference Speaker

In his 40-year career, John Driscoll held senior management positions in oil producing, refining, trading, price reporting and consulting firms based in the US and Singapore including Maxus, Ultramar, Mobil Singapore, Argus Media and GS Caltex. A naturalised Singaporean citizen and resident of the Republic since 1985, John launched one successful trading operation in San Francisco and three in Singapore. He has staged over 30 training programs for business and academic clients and presented at more than 100 industry conferences, forums, workshops and broadcast media appearances. John holds a B.A. from Stanford University and, since founding JTD Energy Services in 2013, has obtained certifications in Supply Chain Optimisation, Technology and Systems (MIT), Financial Market Analysis and Macroeconomic Management in Resource-Rich Countries (IMF) and Data Analytics (University of Texas).

Ms. Vandana Hari

Founder
Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari is Founder & CEO of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of oil markets macro-analysis. She has 25 years of experience providing intelligence on the global energy markets to stakeholders in the industry and related sectors, policy-makers, and wealth managers. Vandana has served in various leadership roles at S&P Global Platts, a leading information-provider on global energy commodity markets. She has managed news and price reporting operations, research and analysis, business strategy and execution, and external stakeholder engagements at the company.

She was a trainer for Platts’ immersive Market Reporting 101 program for new hires in Singapore. She pioneered training on news reporting, editing and libel laws in her early years with the company. Vandana has a Bachelor’s Degree in Science from India’s MD University and Post-Graduate Diplomas in Communication and Social Journalism. She is regularly quoted in business press around the world and pens a monthly column for the Nikkei Asian Review. Vandana is a regular commentator on international radio and TV networks including Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC, and Singapore’s Channel News Asia.

Who should attend

  • Directors / Senior & Middle Managers
  • Crude & Refined Products Traders
  • Supply / Operations / Pricing / Risk Managers
  • Corporate & Strategic Planning Managers
  • Sales / Marketing / Commercial Managers
  • Procurement / Purchasing Managers
  • Finance / Revenue Managers
  • Energy Analysts (Market, Credit, Business, Financial, Geopolitical)
  • Investment Analyst
  • Pricing Specialists / Forecasters
  • Front, middle and back office staff
  • Legal / Contract Managers

Key drivers & trends to be covered

  • Information = the most valuable commodity
  • Breaking down organisational silos to drive information-sharing
  • Talking the talk: Common jargon of success
  • Sources of market intelligence and information, and the importance of credibility: News Agencies, PRAs, IEA, EIA, OPEC, CFTC, BP Statistics Review, analysts and consultants, banks, commodity trading sites, chatrooms, blogs
  • Information asymmetry, the Law of Lemons, social media and fake news
  • The VULCAN paradigm, market biases / behaviours: The power of the checklist
  • The boom / bust cycle, role of OPEC, and the changing face of geopolitics
  • Disruptive technologies: Frackers, Quants, Speed Demons and Flash Boys
  • Energy fundamentals, market evolution, oversight and regulation, reporting and analysis, structures and forward curves
  • Small-group interactive exercises under multiple market scenarios

What you will learn

  • Identify, process, share and act on Mission-Critical Information affecting your bottom line.
  • Understand how to optimise the value and benefit of information in commercial organisations.
  • Identify the key elements driving prices and sentiment under various scenarios.
  • Dive into the role of Price Reporting Agencies and the process of price discovery.
  • Read beyond headlines, reports and statistics to develop unique market insights.
  • Expand your understanding of forces driving oil markets and how they interact with each other.
  • Connect the dots between fundamentals, geopolitics and economics to frame the big picture.
  • Ask the right questions to establish context and extract signal from noise.
  • Engage proactively with teams in your organization to secure competitive advantage.
  • Discover how to extract overt and covert market signals from the daily Platts assessment window (MOC).
  • Appreciate the diverse, non-linear, irrational factors influencing oil markets and value chains.
  • Study the changing roles of key market players – OPEC, majors, NOCs, funds, regulators.
  • Apply key market signals and price trends into forward predictions and forecasts.
  • Formulate concise strategies and summaries that can adapt to dynamic market conditions.
  • Distinguish between familiar phenomena and random black swan scenarios.
  • Write lucid, focused and timely market reports and analyses to initiate responses.

Course methodology

This intensive and unique 2-day course offers a comprehensive experience-based learning with the technology and innovations of modern markets. Delegates will learn how to develop analytical and communication skills within a team-based environment, with emphasis on identifying key Mission-Critical Information and understanding how it may affect their business.

Day 1: Focusing on oil markets, data and information. Delegates will be prompted to develop their own techniques for collecting, assessing and applying Mission-Critical Information. Several exercises will reinforce the key concepts.

Day 2: Through applied trading simulations, delegates in a group will apply the lessons from the first day to craft concise, focused market summaries, price forecasts and strategic recommendations.  In the debriefings, the class will examine how each team processed their information and formulated their strategy.

Course outline

  • Introduction to jargon, communications and team
  • Different market perspectives: Eugene Fama, Adam Smith, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Charles Darwin and Josef Schumpeter
  • Market models: Supply-Demand Equilibrium, Value at Risk (VAR), Black Swans
  • The boom / bust cycle: oil volatility
  • The rise of the State Oil Companies and OPEC
  • Multiple dimensions: Finite Physical Asset vs Infinite Financial Instruments
  • Basis Risk: Physical Prices vs Financial Prices and Physical Assets vs Financial Assets
  • The Commitment of Traders (COT) report: Insights and Caveats
  • Information and strategic advantage
  • Disinformation: Social Media, Fake News, and Phishing
  • Caveats: Technical analysis and modelling
  • Different sources, benchmarks, and criteria of oil price
  • Applications of forward curves: Trading and Mark-to-Market (MTM)
  • Trading Platform, Price Discovery & Analytical Tool
  • Signals from company trading activities and strategies
  • Challenges for Market on Close (MOC) model and Price Reporting Agencies (PRA)
  • Market indicators: macroeconomics, geopolitics, sentiment
  • Case studies: OPEC meetings, North Sea production,  High Frequency Trading (HFT), Spoofing, Trump Tweets, Supply manipulation outside OPEC
  • Exercises: Gauging market sentiment, simulation on tracking system, plotting a forward curve, analysing and weighing market factors, assessing prices and trends

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